Bayes’ Theorem and the Zimmerman Verdict: How a Little Math Reveals the Logical Error Made by the Jury (English Edition)

Using careful scientific analysis, the author assesses the probability that George Zimmerman was guilty of manslaughter. By overreaching with murder, the prosecution forfeited a convincing case that would have exposed the defense's "magic trick" – taking doubt to an improbable extreme. If we are to achieve justice in such complex cases, the author argues, we need to abandon the "moral outrage" approach which attempts to create the dangerous fiction of "moral certainty." In science – in other words, real life – there are only probabilities and these need to be coolly and objectively measured. We also need rational criteria for "reasonable doubt." The law will continue to fail us as long as it clings to quasi-religious principles of truth and personal conviction. DNA evidence has upset this old order, and it is time for science to play a bigger role in courtroom debate.