This publication covers global megatrends for the next 20 years and how they will affect the United States.
This is the fifth installment in the National Intelligence Council’s series aimed at providing a framework for thinking about possible futures and their implications. The report is intended to stimulate strategic thinking about the rapid and vast geopolitical changes characterizing the world today and possible global trajectories during the next 15-20 years by identifying critical trends and potential discontinuities. The authors distinguish between megatrends, those factors that will likely occur under any scenario, and game-changers, critical variables whose trajectories are far less certain. NIC 2012-001.
Several innovations are included in Global Trends 2030, including:
a review of the four previous Global Trends reports,
input from academic and other experts around the world,
coverage of disruptive technologies, and
a chapter on the potential trajectories for the US role in the international system and the possible the impact on future international relations.
Table of Contents:
Introduction 1
Megatrends 6
Individual Empowerment 8
Poverty Reduction 8
An Expanding Global Middle Class 8
Education and the Gender Gap 10
Role of Communications Technologies 11
Improving Health 11
A MORE CONFLICTED IDEOLOGICAL
LANDSCAPE 12
Diffusion of Power 15
THE RISE AND FALL OF COUNTRIES:
NOT THE SAME OLD STORY 17
THE LIMITS OF HARD POWER IN THE
WORLD OF 2030 18
Demographic Patterns 20
Widespread Aging 20
Shrinking Number of Youthful
Countries 22
A New Age of Migration 23
The World as Urban 26
Growing Food, Water,
and Energy Nexus 30
Food, Water, and Climate 30
A Brighter Energy Outlook 34
Game-Changers 38
The Crisis-Prone
Global Economy 40
The Plight of the West 40
Crunch Time Too for
the Emerging Powers 43
A Multipolar Global Economy:
Inherently More Fragile? 46
The Governance Gap 48
Governance Starts at Home:
Risks and Opportunities 48
INCREASED FOCUS ON EQUALITY
AND OPENNESS 53
NEW GOVERNMENTAL FORMS 54
A New Regional Order? 55
Global Multilateral Cooperation 55
The Potential for
Increased Conflict 59
INTRASTATE CONFLICT: CONTINUED
DECLINE 59
Interstate Conflict: Chances Rising 61
Wider Scope of
Regional Instability 70
The Middle East: At a Tipping Point 70
South Asia: Shocks on the Horizon 75
East Asia: Multiple Strategic Futures 76
Europe: Transforming Itself 78
Sub-Saharan Africa: Turning
a Corner by 2030? 79
Latin America: More Prosperous but Inherently Fragile 81
The Impact of
New Technologies 83
Information Technologies 83
AUTOMATION AND MANUFACTURING
TECHNOLOGIES 87
Resource Technologies 90
Health Technologies 95
The Role of the
United States 98
Steady US Role 98
Multiple Potential Scenarios for
the United States’ Global Role 101
Alternative Worlds 107
Stalled Engines 110
FUSION 116
Gini-out-of-the-Bottle 122
Nonstate World 128
Acknowledgements 134
GT2030 Blog References 137
Audience: Appropriate for anyone, from businesses to banks, government agencies to start-ups, the technology sector to the teaching sector, and more. This publication helps anticipate where the world will be: socially, politically, technologically, and culturally over the next few decades.
Keywords: Global Trends 2030 Alternative Worlds, global trends 2030, Global Trends series, National Intelligence Council, global trajectories, global megatrends, geopolitics, geopolitical changes
This is the fifth installment in the National Intelligence Council’s series aimed at providing a framework for thinking about possible futures and their implications. The report is intended to stimulate strategic thinking about the rapid and vast geopolitical changes characterizing the world today and possible global trajectories during the next 15-20 years by identifying critical trends and potential discontinuities. The authors distinguish between megatrends, those factors that will likely occur under any scenario, and game-changers, critical variables whose trajectories are far less certain. NIC 2012-001.
Several innovations are included in Global Trends 2030, including:
a review of the four previous Global Trends reports,
input from academic and other experts around the world,
coverage of disruptive technologies, and
a chapter on the potential trajectories for the US role in the international system and the possible the impact on future international relations.
Table of Contents:
Introduction 1
Megatrends 6
Individual Empowerment 8
Poverty Reduction 8
An Expanding Global Middle Class 8
Education and the Gender Gap 10
Role of Communications Technologies 11
Improving Health 11
A MORE CONFLICTED IDEOLOGICAL
LANDSCAPE 12
Diffusion of Power 15
THE RISE AND FALL OF COUNTRIES:
NOT THE SAME OLD STORY 17
THE LIMITS OF HARD POWER IN THE
WORLD OF 2030 18
Demographic Patterns 20
Widespread Aging 20
Shrinking Number of Youthful
Countries 22
A New Age of Migration 23
The World as Urban 26
Growing Food, Water,
and Energy Nexus 30
Food, Water, and Climate 30
A Brighter Energy Outlook 34
Game-Changers 38
The Crisis-Prone
Global Economy 40
The Plight of the West 40
Crunch Time Too for
the Emerging Powers 43
A Multipolar Global Economy:
Inherently More Fragile? 46
The Governance Gap 48
Governance Starts at Home:
Risks and Opportunities 48
INCREASED FOCUS ON EQUALITY
AND OPENNESS 53
NEW GOVERNMENTAL FORMS 54
A New Regional Order? 55
Global Multilateral Cooperation 55
The Potential for
Increased Conflict 59
INTRASTATE CONFLICT: CONTINUED
DECLINE 59
Interstate Conflict: Chances Rising 61
Wider Scope of
Regional Instability 70
The Middle East: At a Tipping Point 70
South Asia: Shocks on the Horizon 75
East Asia: Multiple Strategic Futures 76
Europe: Transforming Itself 78
Sub-Saharan Africa: Turning
a Corner by 2030? 79
Latin America: More Prosperous but Inherently Fragile 81
The Impact of
New Technologies 83
Information Technologies 83
AUTOMATION AND MANUFACTURING
TECHNOLOGIES 87
Resource Technologies 90
Health Technologies 95
The Role of the
United States 98
Steady US Role 98
Multiple Potential Scenarios for
the United States’ Global Role 101
Alternative Worlds 107
Stalled Engines 110
FUSION 116
Gini-out-of-the-Bottle 122
Nonstate World 128
Acknowledgements 134
GT2030 Blog References 137
Audience: Appropriate for anyone, from businesses to banks, government agencies to start-ups, the technology sector to the teaching sector, and more. This publication helps anticipate where the world will be: socially, politically, technologically, and culturally over the next few decades.
Keywords: Global Trends 2030 Alternative Worlds, global trends 2030, Global Trends series, National Intelligence Council, global trajectories, global megatrends, geopolitics, geopolitical changes
