Russian military transformation: goal in sight?

The questionable performance of the Russian armed forces in the conflict in Georgia in 2008 provided the impetus for a program of far-reaching reform in the Russian military. The progress of this reform has been the subject of intensive study, including in a number of monographs issued by the Strategic Studies Institute. But as Mr. Keir Giles and Dr. Andrew Monaghan describe in this Paper, the most recent phase of military transformation in Russia allows conclusions to be drawn about the final shape of the Russian military once the process is complete?and about the range of threats, some of them unrecognizable to us, that is guiding that process.In this monograph, the authors use a wide range of Russian language sources and interviews to illustrate not only the Russian threat assessments highlighting the United States as a potential aggressor, but also the many unique challenges facing Russia in renewing and rearming its military. They conclude that, although many of the stated aims of reform will not be met, Russia will still have much more capable conventional and nuclear forces as a result. This, together with the Russian aim of closing the capability gap with the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, should be an essential consideration for U.S. decisionmakers evaluating options for reducing expenditure on the U.S. military capability.This monograph was completed 6 months before the Russian military demonstrated its new capabilities in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine in early-2014. Presciently, the authors had concluded with a warning that close attention to Russian military transformation and its eventual aims was essential both for Russias immediate neighbors, and for the United States. The Strategic Studies Institute therefore recommends this Letort Paper not only to scholars of Russia, but also to policymakers considering the range of challenges which the U.S. Army may be expected to face in the coming decades.