Over the past 30+ years, Ron Shandler has been in search of the best baseball performance forecasting model. His goal was to achieve the most accurate projections so he could clobber his fantasy league opponents. He's been writing about it in the Baseball Forecaster annual since 1986.
But over time he started to realize that it was nearly impossible to project performance with enough precision for it to matter in putting together the best teams. The error bars were too wide. So he started to embrace the imprecision of the process.
About a year ago, he realized that the numbers themselves were too confining. We still look at player projections, dollar values and ADPs, and fixate on those numbers as if they hold some religious significance. But they are all highly flawed.
So he developed the Broad Assessment Balance Sheet (BABS).
BABS says we should do several things. First, we should assess skill in very broad terms; otherwise, we get caught up in those wide error bars of normal statistical volatility. Second, we need to separate the skill from the risk factors. Players are evaluated as a balance sheet of assets and liabilities. Finally, BABS sets targets for your roster.
In the end, BABS tells us that players are more alike than they are different. And the more the marketplace tries to differentiate between like-skilled players, the more opportunity there is for Draft Day profit. That is where you find your ultimate competitive advantage.
The BABS Project describes the journey. You'll see how the concept evolved and then learn how to use it to win your leagues. Complete BABS ratings and cheat sheets for the upcoming season are then available at RonShandler.com.
But over time he started to realize that it was nearly impossible to project performance with enough precision for it to matter in putting together the best teams. The error bars were too wide. So he started to embrace the imprecision of the process.
About a year ago, he realized that the numbers themselves were too confining. We still look at player projections, dollar values and ADPs, and fixate on those numbers as if they hold some religious significance. But they are all highly flawed.
So he developed the Broad Assessment Balance Sheet (BABS).
BABS says we should do several things. First, we should assess skill in very broad terms; otherwise, we get caught up in those wide error bars of normal statistical volatility. Second, we need to separate the skill from the risk factors. Players are evaluated as a balance sheet of assets and liabilities. Finally, BABS sets targets for your roster.
In the end, BABS tells us that players are more alike than they are different. And the more the marketplace tries to differentiate between like-skilled players, the more opportunity there is for Draft Day profit. That is where you find your ultimate competitive advantage.
The BABS Project describes the journey. You'll see how the concept evolved and then learn how to use it to win your leagues. Complete BABS ratings and cheat sheets for the upcoming season are then available at RonShandler.com.
